People and ecosystems

Understanding of the links between coral reef ecosystems, the goods and services they provide to people, and the wellbeing of human societies.


Ecosystem dynamics: past, present and future

Examining the multi-scale dynamics of reefs, from population dynamics to macroevolution


Responding to a changing world

Advancing the fundamental understanding of the key processes underpinning reef resilience.

Coral Bleaching

Coral Bleaching

Coral Reef Studies

From 2005 to 2022, the main node of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies was headquartered at James Cook University in Townsville, Queensland (Australia)

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Kevin R. Bairos-Novak

Kevin R. Bairos-Novak

PhD Candidate

MSc University of Saskatchewan • BSc (Hons) University of Manitoba

Ecological Modelling Group (Sean Connolly, STRI, Panama)
Coral Ecophysiology Lab (Mia Hoogenboom, CoE)

CodeR-TSV Coding Club: https://codertsv.github.io/
CoE JEDI Committee: https://www.coralcoe.org.au/jedi
CoE Student Committee

James Cook University

About Me

I am studying how Great Barrier Reef corals are likely to evolve in the future, given future predicted ocean warming. I use demographic models of corals to address likely rates of population evolution. My thesis chapters examine the following three topics: (1) Defining a minimal demographic model (size-dependent Integral Projection Model) of corals that captures realistic population dynamics (2) To what extent are traits such as survival in heat stress heritable? (3) Determining likely coral population outcomes in the long run by combining the coral demographic model (Chapter 1), trait heritability estimates (Chapter 2), and future projections of climate change within an evolutionary Integral Projection model. Future extensions of my work will include meta-population evolutionary dynamics, as well as incorporating a thermotolerance-growth evolutionary trade-off.

My main passion is statistical modelling/causal inference, and am always open and happy to form new collaborations. If you are looking for advice on which analysis to use for your data analysis, help with making advanced plots, or simply would like an extra set of eyes to look over your design – please reach out to me!

Personal Profiles

Research Interests


Australian Research Council Pandora

Partner Research Institutions

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Coral Reef Studies